Late Thursday, Robinhood posted a loss of 45 cents a share on revenue of $299 million, while Wall Street expected a loss of 38 cents and $355 million in revenue.

“With market uncertainty, our clients have become more cautious with their portfolios, trading less frequently and in smaller amounts across all asset classes,” said Vladimir Tenev, co-founder, chairman and CEO of Robinhood during of the company’s earnings call. “Crypto activity in particular has declined quite significantly.”

“Somewhat significantly” is correct. Cryptocurrency trading volumes fell to $54 million, down 39% from the same period a year ago and below the $56 million expected by analysts polled by FactSet.

Cryptos are a significant part of Robinhood’s business, recently accounting for almost a quarter of its transaction-based revenue, with digital assets being more popular than stock trading. Options remain queens on the platform.

And Robinhood is only pushing further into cryptocurrencies. This month, the group expanded wallet services to two million users in the United States this month. It acquired UK-regulated digital asset firm Ziglu as part of its international crypto expansion.

While Tenev said the company has seen encouraging signs, like rising net deposit levels and declining churn, or losing customers, the crypto downturn is hurting.

And that doesn’t bode well for Coinbase, which is due to report results on May 10. The company said it had no comment in response to a question from Barrons on reading Robinhood results.

Analysts polled by FactSet have steadily reduced their estimates of quarterly trading volumes on the exchange, from $390 billion at the start of the year to a current consensus of $320 billion. Volumes exceeded $547 billion in the last three months of 2021 and $335 billion in the first quarter of last year.

Even the most optimistic analysts align themselves. At the start of 2022, the highest estimate of quarterly transaction volumes was $668 billion; it stood at just $334 billion on Friday. The lowest estimate was $306 billion.

Wall Street still expects Coinbase to break even in the quarter and turn a profit this year. The consensus call is for current quarter earnings per share to be flat with earnings of 17 cents for fiscal 2022.

But don’t be shocked if it doesn’t work.

JPMorgan Chase

Analyst Kenneth Worthington cut his estimates for first-quarter EPS to a loss of 27 cents last week, lowering estimates for full-year EPS to a loss of 84 cents. If Worthington is correct, the market may be grossly overpricing earnings. The stock would likely react negatively if Coinbase suffered a significant loss.

Write to Jack Denton at [email protected]